WASHINGTON / ABUJA — Global commodity prices are projected to rise by 23 per cent in 2026, driven by escalating conflict in the Middle East, dwindling crude oil inventories, and critical disruptions to agricultural supply chains.
The warning was issued in the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, released on Wednesday, October 28, 2026.
According to the international financial institution, mounting geopolitical shocks and climate risks threaten to trigger renewed inflationary pressures across developing and emerging market economies.
The report highlighted that escalating tensions in the Middle East have severely drawn down global crude oil reserves, pushing energy price indexes upward and leaving international markets increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Beyond energy, the World Bank warned of compounding pressures on global food security caused by grain shipment blockades, high fertilizer costs, and unfavorable climate conditions linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon.
“Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, compounding economic vulnerabilities in developing nations,” stated Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group.
The report noted that while global demand for oil is seeing a long-term shift due to expanding electrification and efficiency gains, immediate production deficits mean inventory withdrawals will continue to keep market conditions tight.
Financial experts caution that a 23 per cent hike in international commodity costs will severely impact import-dependent nations like Nigeria, threatening to exacerbate domestic food inflation, transportation overheads, and overall household expenditures.
You Might Also Like
