The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that persistent inflation and soaring costs of staple foods and energy threaten to deepen household poverty and food insecurity across Nigeria, despite recent improvements in the nation’s macroeconomic balance and trade indicators.
The global lender disclosed this assessment in its latest 2026 World Economic Outlook report, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” released on Tuesday during the ongoing IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
In the report, the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s GDP growth projection to 4.2 per cent for 2026—a 0.1 percentage point increase from previous estimates—while forecasting a 4.3 per cent expansion in 2027.
Addressing journalists at the summit, Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF’s Research Department, emphasized that while macroeconomic stabilization measures and favorable external trade conditions are supporting overall output, rising living costs continue to erode purchasing power for everyday citizens.
She noted that a sharp, disproportionate surge in basic food staples and fuel prices remains the primary driver of household vulnerability across the country.
To mitigate these social risks, the multilateral institution urged Nigerian policymakers to accelerate targeted social interventions—specifically expanding conditional direct cash transfer programs—to shield low-income families from severe economic shocks.
The IMF underscored that supporting vulnerable populations must be prioritized alongside broader fiscal reforms to ensure that national growth translates into measurable poverty reduction.
Beyond domestic price pressures, the Fund identified severe external risks that could undermine regional economic stability. It warned that sustained geopolitical conflicts, volatile international oil prices, and tight global credit markets could further strain emerging economies, calling for cautious fiscal management.
For industrial hubs and agricultural communities across Nigeria—including the South-South region—the IMF’s analysis underscores an urgent need for government authorities to complement macroeconomic policies with localized food security initiatives and social safety nets to cushion the ongoing cost-of-living crisis.
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